The population of the Arab countries has reached 350 million and is increasing by 2 % each year approaching 700 million in the middle of the twenty first century; this will impose doubling the current amount of food needed. It is a known fact that the Arab world is currently importing 75 % of its food.
Because of the increase in the population of the world during the period 2000-2050, there will be an estimated addition of 50 % or more than three billion people. Due to this increase and the consequent need to multiply food amounts, it would be difficult or even impossible to provide the needs of the Arab world from countries that used to provide this food earlier in this century. It is only natural to witness a preference from the side of these countries to provide food for their citizens first and a possible rationing or even abstaining from exporting food to other foreign countries in order to allow their own citizens to purchase food at agreeable prices with respect to their income.
Are the world’s arable lands provided with rain water or irrigation water capable of multiplying food during the first 50 years of this century? Scientists and economists have analyzed this possibility with great effort and came to a conclusion that it is not easy but rather not impossible to supply this need only and only if the following is provided:
1- There is still a great amount of arable land all around the world that is still untouched until today reaching 35 %. These lands will be able to provide food if planted gradually during this period. Two thirds of these lands happen to be parts of countries that are active in agriculture and that are able to widen the already planted areas.
2- The breeding of plants and animals in the last fifty years have revealed an ability to increase the productivity of the spatial units of land or the productivity of the bred animals to amounts that range between one to five times the original amounts. The breeding scientists are still working hard on formulas to increase the productivity of crops and animals that are highly suited to provide animal protein.
3- Many countries are still refraining from using modern techniques in agriculture and irrigation, especially in rationalization of water use. These countries should keep up with modern techniques in plant and animal production so that they would easily increase their productivity and supply their citizens with needed amounts of food.
4- The countries of the world should reach a consensus to only use means that reduce global warming. The industrial countries should abide by Kyoto’s convention which made a decision for all countries to go green with their methods of energy use. It is known that global warming and decrease in rain fall are two fundamental hindering factors for the progress of agriculture and the production of food all around the world.
5- Speeding up with adopting the World Trade Organization free trade agreements for plant and animal products. It is known that the disagreement regarding these pacts is traced back to the reluctance of these industrial countries and their insistence on keeping agriculture subsidies and hindering the imports of plant and animal products from poor and developing countries. The direct yearly subsidy of agriculture in Europe reached 55 billion Euros and in the United States of America it surpassed 185 billion dollars. This subsidy is not limited to these countries’ consumption but it has exceeded it to include surpluses destined for exports. This support of the agriculture production and processed food damaged the ability of third world countries to develop their production because of the swamping of subsidized products with very competitive prices that undercut their cost prices.
6- It might be hard to persuade the industrial countries to stop their subsidy for agriculture because of the considerations of food security and the welfare of farmers and others, but it might be possible to persuade the industrial countries to limit this support to specific productive levels that are sufficient for their citizen’s consumption. This should trigger agriculture in the third world and other importing countries to contribute in providing world food supply.
This is the international picture. So, what role should the Arab countries play to help provide their food needs?
The arable lands in Arab countries reach 546 million hectares. Only 58 million or 11 % is currently being used. The production costs vary in these countries a great deal for many reasons of which lack of decent roads, especially those related to agricultural areas, and the quality of soil and insufficient water are some to name. But when it is necessary, and it is no doubt a necessity, the activation of agriculture even with high costs should be stimulated in order to provide food that is otherwise unavailable at ease or at economical prices for the citizens of the Arab countries in the near future.
The most capable country in the Arab world to activate its agriculture is Sudan, for it owns 135 million hectares of arable land where only 16 million are being planted so far. Algeria is another country where only 7.5 million hectares are being planted from 40 million hectares. Morocco plants 8.5 % of its 30. Syria plants only 4.5 out of 14. Yemen plants only 1.5 out of its total 18 million of arable lands. These are only samples of Arab countries that have the biggest capabilities to evolve and progress in agriculture.
This clearly shows the ability of the Arab world to satisfy itself if it embarks on agriculture. But this would take a series of serious procedures that these countries should abide by and quickly. Following are some of the most important measures to be applied: 1- It is clearly known that the primary task to produce food lies on the shoulders of the private sector. But this private sector requires an
adequate climate for investments at least when it comes to security, justice and stimulating legislations.
2- Providing the infrastructure such as building roads between cities and planted lands and ports, bridges above rivers and canyons, dams to produce electricity and irrigation waters and means to supply these lands and villages with this electricity and water.
3- Instituting ministries for investments and laws for encouraging these investments and to facilitate the role of the private sector in igniting investments in agriculture and food products without sinking in the abyss of different ministries.
4- Setting effective legislations to protect national production and to limit the importation of food products that come at dumping prices subsidized by their home lands. Neglecting this fact would jeopardize the investments in agriculture and food production by the private sector and thus will make such countries become dependent on importing their food. This will increase the value of the imported and will endanger the position of other countries in retrospective. This imbalance has happened before and may recur along the increase in world population.
5- Setting legislations that free the lands from the grip of influential citizens in many Arab countries and from the power of those who claim they own it without a clear and reasonable justification and without actually planting it but out of mere control of the lands in order to exploit it and impose high prices on the serious investors. This is one of the most dangerous phenomena that prevent progress in generating agricultural projects in the Arab world.
6- Setting legislations that facilitate the moving of investors and their capitals, profits, and technicians and protecting them from exploiters and the obstructionists in the circles of different ministries and departments.
Only such measures can equip the Arab world in the next decades by the means to provide its food supplies and to decrease its dependence on importing products that cannot always be provided in adequate amounts or economic values.